Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
