Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
